Predicting The Chargers Draft: Be The GM, Part VI

With less then two-weeks to go before the start of the NFL 2011 Draft on April 28, we have reached a period of time when trade negotiations start to heat up. The groundwork that is being laid now could facilitate a number of trades that come to fruition on draft day.

In a recent interview on XX1090 Sports Radio, Chargers GM AJ Smith discussed how happy he would be if the team held on to their combined five-picks in the first three rounds. He also admitted to being one of the GM’s most likely to facilitate a trade in the draft should there be a player he values or a deal worth taking.

In our continuing Be The GM series, we look at possible trade scenarios and ask, “What would YOU do if you were the GM of the Chargers?”

ince the first 9-10 players selected in the draft are the same on most any mock draft scenario that you can find (Newton, Dareus, Miller, Peterson, Green, Gabbert, Fairley, T. Smith, Quinn, J. Jones) we are going to focus on a couple of scenarios from selection number 11 on…

11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith OLB
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker QB
13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara
14. St Louis Rams: Corey Luiget DT
15. Miami Dolphins: TRADE OFFER

One frequently discussed trade partner is the Miami Dolphins, who most people see taking either a running back or offensive lineman in the first round. If the Chargers choose to focus on the defensive side of the ball in the first round, players like JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, or Ryan Kerrigan, among others are all available at this point in the draft, but there is no guarantee who will still be on the board after Jacksonville and New England pick. Miami may be a willing trade partner, but is it worth it to move up a few spots to guarantee yourself one of the top defensive ends?

The Trade Offer: Miami is willing to give you the 15th overall selection in the first round for the Chargers’ 18th overall pick, as well as the Chargers’ 2nd round pick, number 61 overall. As the Chargers’ GM, do you pull the trigger on this deal? What would you do?

15. Miami Dolphins: Anthony Castonzo OT
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB
17. New England Patriots: Cameron Jordan DE
18. San Diego Chargers: ???

With the 18th overall selection in this scenario, the Chargers have some strong options from which to choose. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, or a top tackle prospect like Gabe Carimi are available and could all be solid options to help improve the Chargers immediately. But there is a trade being offered by a team near the end of the first round. With offensive tackles starting to come off the board, a perennial contender wants to insure that they don’t miss out on one of the top players from that group.

The Trade Offer: The Chicago Bears, with the 29th overall selection in the first round, are willing to trade their first round pick as well as their 2nd round pick (62nd overall) to the Chargers in exchange for the Chargers 18th overall selection. Would you give up the chance to draft one of the top players on your draft board to move back and pick up an extra 2nd round pick?

It is very difficult to predict trade scenarios, but it is easier to predict that AJ Smith will pull the trigger on at least one trade in this draft. Would you accept either of these deals? Be The GM, sound off below and join the conversation!

April 18, 2011

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Kurt Stadler said... Apr 18, 2011, 11:32:00 AM

If, as in this scenario, Watt, Kerrigan, and Jordan are available then wait and pick one of these at 18 and keep both the 2nd round picks.

donzietgr said... Apr 18, 2011, 1:03:00 PM

SD 1st & 61st pk are worth 1192 pts according to the trade value chart. Miami's 1st is valued at 1050 pts add miami's 4th 72pts and 5th 35pts you get 1157 pts. SD does not have a 4th or a 5th choice . I would definatly make this trade if the first cluster my guess ( Jordan,Watt,A.Smith & kerrigan are off the board.

jjamesnaz said... Apr 18, 2011, 2:12:00 PM

1st Scenario: No way we give them one of our second rounds to move up to 15. More likely our second 3rd round pick.

2nd Scenario: Take JJ Watt immediately. We need an impact DE and Watt is the best possibility, so there's no way we should pass on him

Jeff Williams said... Apr 18, 2011, 2:47:00 PM

The trade value chart only means so much. It all comes down to which team wants it more. Would you value a guarantee that you can have your choice of Watt or Jordan? How much would it suck if you didn't pull the trigger and both Watt and Jordan came off the board? I would be pretty unhappy if I lost out on both of them at that point.

But given the present scenarios, I would pass on the trade up as well and would jump on Watt at #18.

Anthony M. Blake said... Apr 18, 2011, 4:24:00 PM

Couldn't agree more. The trade value chart is very outdated and is much more relevant for picks beyond the first round. If the Chargers want to move up to secure their pick of the defensive end litter early they are going to have to pay for it.

donzietgr said... Apr 18, 2011, 4:52:00 PM

Theres no way I would give up our 61st pick to move up 3 places. Two other trade up scenarios are Washington at 10 for SD 18 & 50. Another trade up option would be Minn at 12 for SD 18 & 61.

Jeff Williams said... Apr 18, 2011, 5:22:00 PM

You can trade up to 10, 12, or 15, but ultimately I'm still looking at the same players- Watt or Jordan. Who else would you want to take at 12 that you couldn't take at 15? Really, you'd be better off giving up the 1st and 2nd round picks for the 15th pick so the contract will be a little cheaper.

donzietgr said... Apr 18, 2011, 6:27:00 PM

Everyone of the above mentioned scenarios are predicaded on who's available at the time of the selection.Each year You see something no one expected. Example Jacksonville selecting Alualu 10th. This draft is different in that you can not trade players for draft choices or other players. Lets
hope that the Chargers stay at 18 & get one of the players targeted.

cczer08 said... Apr 19, 2011, 12:03:00 PM

Agreed, although I am very comfortable with the idea of trading back a few spots, possibly picking up a future pick and taking Muhammad Wilkerson.

cczer08 said... Apr 19, 2011, 12:09:00 PM

I think the Chargers should get comfortable with the idea of Muhammad Wilkerson if Jordan and Watt are gone. He is bigger than both of those guys, and has shown the measurable strength/athleticism to be a perfect fit at the 3-4 DE. Plus he was highly productive in college and appears to be a hardworking, high character guy. The only knock on him was the level of competition he played against, but with the combination of measurables and production, I would say he is not much of a risk. Plus you could trade down a few spots to get him and grab another pick or perhaps a future pick (extra 2012 2nd rounder?).

In the first scenario, I would NOT trade up with Miami for the deal you mentioned. I would attempt to trade back a few spots and grab Wilkerson.

In the second scenario, I would take Watt at 18 and pass on the trade down.

SDCharger17 said... Apr 19, 2011, 2:57:00 PM

Scenario 1 If they trade the 18th and 62nd pick i will be pretty mad but they would probably draft Cameron Jordan. I still say no however.

Scenario 2 even bigger no no, after the 1st round there is a big drop off at the DE and OLB position so JJ Watt would be a no brainer

Shhhdontte11 said... Apr 19, 2011, 3:35:00 PM

if you get up to 10 or 12 why not take robert quinn. BEAST. difference maker on defense that the chargers need

Jeff Williams said... Apr 19, 2011, 4:33:00 PM

Quinn is off the board by pick #11 in this scenario.

Hixster said... Apr 22, 2011, 4:57:00 PM

The trade to Miami is solely to keep from getting stripped of that elite end that can add the pressure we so sorely lack getting someone with a motor to do it consistently and occupy blockers. I'm a bit concerned that Wilkerson is "settling" for a pretty good when we need very good. Given the players remaining in the above scenerio we've got a 15 (Miami) unlikely to take an end and three very good DEs to pick from (Watt, Jordan, Kerrigan). I'd stand pat. But if one of those three were gone I'd be tempted to try and package the #18, #61 for the #15 and a third rounder. Miami would still get what they want and have added that second rounder.

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